SG Election (5)–Post Election and Google fusion
Upset, the swing was only 6.5% strong, 0.5% less than my conservative prediction… But yeah, one GRC fell!!!
60.2% of people chosen 93% of the parliament house, people will have to be angry with such electoral system and demand for a reform… Will there be an electoral reform? Honestly, it’s politically unsound to have a government with 93% control of the house to reform the electoral system that’s in favour of the government itself…
This morning I read Guardian UK and found out 2/3 of the UK people rejected the electoral reform, alternative voting system, hence in favour of first past the post, which usually produces a majority government with < 40% of popular votes in a multi-party system. What’s so damn cool is they produce a map showing how many percent of people from where voted YES to the referendum. And it is produced using Google fusion.
I’m not a big google fan, I use google search but I like my yahoo mail, my (cute) firefox and give me microsoft office instead of google documents anytime… but this Google fusion thingy is so cool! Basically it’s a mini GIS presented to you by Web 2.0, and a bit of google earth (OK google earth is cool too ), but so far I only get to add one layer of information, but still good enough I don’t need to install anything but google earth…
And as a self-declared geek, that loves numbers and map (and being a biologist but that’s not relevant here), I decided to try to map the PAP’s voters share across the Singapore and see if there’s any pattern (there was this question if eastern is more anti-PAP than western)… took me under one hour to figure out how to map this thing, and including a google search that returns me someone’s hard work in plotting the electoral boundaries of Singapore, and since it’s shared in public domain… I shamelessly adopted it, but yeah, saved me tonnes of time, big thanks to these people. Otherwise, it’s damn simple, copy and paste all the data into a spreadsheet, import it into the Google fusion thingy and with some sense of arts (which I have none) in the visualization department… Ta dah, the PAP vote share constituency-by-constituency:
(Well WordPress.com doesn’t allow iframe, so I can’t embed the map here, sigh, please click the link above 🙂 )
Red – 30%, Yellow-Green – 50%, Blue – 70%
And then I got excited, and produced another map, PAP constituency-by-constituency vote swing from 2006 to 2011:
(Same situation as above =/ )
Darker green 7%, Dark Red 14%, White 0%
Constituencies from 2006 to 2011 were matched only by name, not geographical area.
1. Eastern has more opposition voters. North and West less.
Which can be due to several reasons including A) that the worker’s party, strongest opposition in terms of organization and grassroots, contested mostly in the west; B) Singaporean people as I said is very candidate-based and groundwork-centric when it comes to electing MPs, like what my landlord said “I never even see the RP guys, how to vote them?”; C) which kind of answers why SDA (some sort of jokers) got trashed in Pasir Ris-Punggol, or that RP (new party that was embroiled in infighting, fighting for nothing actually) got thrashed in Ang Mo Kio; D) that most in the east have previous voting experience (see the swing map), hence are probably more politically aware than their western bro and sis, you care when you’re one of the shareholders…
2. Homogeneity rules, most of the time.
Hougang is the odd one that PAP garnered only 35%, –2% swing (which kind of hinted that hardcore PAP supporters base is about 30%). Aside from that, it’s between 45% and 70%, with most of them fall near 53% or 64% mark. That explains why 60% popular vote resulted in 90+% of parliamentary seats… When variation is small, most seats hover around the average mark, and First-Past-The-Post system is the most advantageous (towards the majority) under such circumstances.
3. Constituency-by-constituency swing reveals strong swing towards Opposition.
Something PAP needs to get worried. Perhaps when people have the voting experience, and know the candidates or their party a wee-bit more, the likelihood of people voting against PAP is higher under the wind of change. Even the joker party SDA managed to swing 3%! Opposition gotta work their ground in the west, and who knows, they’ll get to enjoy the –10% swing during next election…
4. Potong Pasir and Ang Mo Kio swung towards PAP
Longest serving opposition parliamentarian left Potong Pasir for a GRC, and it’s possible people don’t get connected with his wife (as the candidate) and hence swung over to PAP, afterall, the ward has got no “development” and “upgrade” for 27 years (the goverment does not pay opposition’s town council). Ang Mo Kio is PM Lee’s ward, and last term, it was the stronger opposition WP who challenged the PM while this time, RP… certainly you would expect positive vote swing towards PAP right?
Exciting time, exciting numbers, the fact is opposition needs to work on the ground to garner people’s support, and PAP needs to think why was there a wind of change when the so called economy (GDP number) is good. And if, like PM Lee said, he will listen to the people, he would have offered to talk with the opposition leader and pledge to be inclusive towards the person sitting opposite him in the parliament. Did he? He did not. Will he? Well who knows, he could apologize during the campaign to win votes, I’m sure he could also “be humble” and listen to his opponent’s view, so much for the inclusiveness and parliamentary accountability.